Less than 1° of warming

Even with less than 1°C of warming, New South Wales and the ACT will feel significant impacts. Droughts will be 70% more frequent and widespread. Annual heatwave deaths will increase in both Sydney and Canberra. The average number of very high/extreme fire weather conditions will increase across the state and capital territory, from Cobar to Wagga Wagga and Richmond to Williamtown. Snow covered alpine regions will decrease by 10-40%. 

1-2°C of warming

Murray Darling River flows will fall by 12-25%. 

2-3°C of warming

Warming at this level will have a major effect on annual heatwave deaths in Sydney and Canberra. In Sydney, heatwave deaths will increase from 176 (today) to 717-1,312, while in Canberra deaths will rise from 14 (today) to 62-92. The number of extreme fire days will double to triple. There will be less run-off into rivers across the region. There will be a 20% decline in value of irrigated agricultural production in the Murray-Darling Basin. 

Greater than 3°C of warming

The flow in the Murray Darling Basin will fall 16-48%. The dengue fever zone will expand as far South as Sydney, affecting up to 720,000 Australians nationwide. Snow-covered alpine regions will shrink by 22-85%. With unmitigated climate change, snow-based tourism in Australia is likely to disappear entirely. Water supply infrastructure will be severely impacted, and there will be high impacts on buildings in coastal settlements. 

Source: Climate Impacts and Emissions Targets

           Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report: Implications for Australia