Less than 1° of warming

Even with less than 1°C of warming, Victoria will feel significant impacts. The Melbourne water supply will fall by 3-11%. Annual heatwave deaths will increase in Melbourne. The average number of very high/extreme fire weather conditions will increase across the state and capital territory, from Sale to Bendigo and Melbourne to Mildura. Snow covered alpine regions will decrease by 10-40%. 

1-2°C of warming

Murray Darling River flows will fall by 12-25% and the Melbourne water supply will fall 7-35%. 

2-3°C of warming

Warming at this level will have a major effect on annual heatwave deaths in Melbourne. Heatwave deaths will increase from 289(today) to 980-1,318. The average number of very high/extreme fire weather conditions will continue to increase, and extreme fire days will double to triple. There will be a decline of up to 45% in 29 Victorian catchments. Moderate impacts will occur to water supply infrastructure and buildings in coastal settlements. Artificial snowmaking will need to increase. 

Greater than 3°C of warming

The flow in the Murray Darling Basin will fall 16-48%. T Snow-covered alpine regions will shrink by 22-85%. With unmitigated climate change, snow-based tourism in Australia is likely to disappear entirely. Water supply infrastructure will be severely impacted, and there will be high impacts on buildings in coastal settlements.  Most Australian vertebrate animals will lose 90-100% of their core habitat.

Source: Climate Impacts and Emissions Targets

           Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report: Implications for Australia