Once again we are reminded of the awesome ability of humanity to bond together at a time of crisis.  As well as extraordinary support from across Australia, support has come from Indonesia, the US and New Zealand. It is our determination that through Australia’s response to this crisis – and our response to the economic and climate crises facing the world - we emerge smarter, better prepared, and more assertive in our efforts to minimise the chances of us facing such a tragedy again.

While tonight’s discussion focuses on water, it is impossible not also to talk of fire. These two elements, along with wind, are inextricably linked in ways that have become all too painfully obvious.

I also want to talk about man-made elements – the economy, the nature of the economic growth and how the investments we make now will critically shape the future of our planet and the future safety and security of our children.

Out of respect for the victims, survivors, and the ongoing fire suppression and rescue efforts, the Climate Institute has not proactively sought to comment on climate issues and the Victorian fires. Our 2007 research into climate change and bushfire risks has, though, been widely quoted.

However, with the Commission of Inquiry now formally underway we believe the onus is on us, as an independent evidence based research and advocacy organisation to state our views on such a critical, but none-the-less complicated issue.

In September 2007, I stood with Euan Ferguson the South Australian Fire Commissioner and the President of the Australasian Fire and Emergency Services Authorities Council in the hills behind Adelaide. 

We were releasing a ground breaking study into impacts of climate change on the intensity of bushfires in south east Australia.  The Climate Institute commissioned the CRC for Bushfires, CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology to examine recent bushfire trends and projections under climate change.

The Fire Commissioner said at the launch words that were chillingly prophetic:

Climate change is having an impact on bushfire severity. Longer fire seasons, more extreme days and greater extremes of bushfire conditions…there will be times when no force known to mankind can suppress these bushfires.

The Fire Commissioner’s message was that we have to dramatically increase our preparedness for these fires, fires that are establishing a new frame of reference for firefighters and our communities.  

The reports message was global warming, even if only partly addressed, will significantly increase the number and intensity of the fires of this new frame of reference – the fires of climate change. 

In our view what we have seen in Victoria, with such devastating ferocity, are the fires of Climate Change.  Let me explain.

The Bushfire report, noting the increasing frequency of severe fire weather conditions, discovered the need for new categories of bushfire weather conditions.  To make sense of their results, the experts added “very extreme” and “catastrophic” wedges to the familiar semicircle fire risk warning signs we see as we drive around rural areas.  

The reality for fire fighters and rural communities is that the rules that applied in the past to fighting and surviving bushfires has changed forever – because of our warming planet.  One of the recommendations we will be making to the Commission is that we formalise this new reality with at least one extra level beyond the current upper limit of “extreme”.

And, unless we address the root cause of the problem, our fire fighters and communities will increasingly be faced with these devastating fires of climate change - which require an entirely new level of preparedness, resourcing and research.

Forest fire weather conditions are rated using the Forest Fire Danger Index combining temperature, relative humidity, wind speed with an estimate of a “drought factor”, which depends on daily rainfall and time since the last rain.  A similar index is used for grasslands.

I don’t need to go into the details of the recent heatwaves, the drought and the winds that have prevailed across south east Australia which experts at the Bureau of Meteorology have described as “extreme” and “exceptional”.  Historically, high temperature records are usually broken by incremental amounts – this time they were smashed. 

And I also don’t need to remind you of the length of time between decent rainfall here in South Eastern Australia.

The fire danger index formula has used the 1939 Ash Wednesday fires as a base of 100, the point above which our report describes as catastrophic. Sydney fire weather conditions in 1994 came close to 100 and the Canberra fires of 2003 peaked above that at 115.

Both the South Australian Port Lincoln fires of 2005 and the fires of 7 February are reported to have had times when the fire indices peaked in the high 100s, indeed into the 200s.  For the Melbourne fires I have even seen reports of 300 FFDI. This is not a mere doubling or tripling of fire danger, these are exponential increases in danger.

Our 2007 report showed that under scenarios for global warming that we will see a further exponential increase in these fire weather conditions particularly if we let the average warming of the globe to go more than two degrees above pre-industrial levels.  

CSIRO estimated that in a world of a 3 degrees increase, by 2050 catastrophic fire conditions which haven’t been experienced in Bendigo might occur every 8 years, Melbourne airport might experience these conditions once every thirty years could get them every two years. Mildura, which experiences these conditions once every 8 years could get them every year.  

CSIRO projections were that if we stopped global carbon pollution today we’ll have about a 2 per cent increase in total fire risk for Australia.   If we keep global greenhouse gas levels at 450 parts per million or lower – levels that  the Prime Minister rightly described as in our national interest, there is a 50/50 chance of keeping global warming below two degrees above pre-industrial levels. Under this scenario, the total fire risk increases could be limited to around 5% .

However, if other countries follow our poor leadership on carbon pollution reduction targets then we risk at best a three degree warming, and a 20% increase in total fire risk.  Another exponential jump.   

So it was no surprise to see Peter Marshall, national secretary of the United Firefighters Union of Australia, last week (Feb12th) in an open letter to Prime Minister Rudd, and Premier Brumby, warn, in no uncertain terms, of the risk of history repeating itself unless our political leaders got serious about action on climate change.

Given the Federal Government's dismal greenhouse gas emissions cut of 5 per cent, the science suggests we are well on the way to guaranteeing that somewhere in the country there will be an almost annual repeat of the recent disaster and more frequent extreme weather events.

It is time that both Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull got behind that national interest and backed reductions, as part of a global agreement, of 25% or more.

It is a cruel paradox that while our emergency services have been battling raging infernos in Victoria, their colleagues in Queensland have been rescuing people from floods as two thirds of the state is submerged in water. The damage bill there is expected to exceed $200 million. 

The mid-north coast of NSW is now also battling floods and previously drought ravaged Bourke, now declared a natural disaster zone, received two-thirds of its entire annual rainfall in just 15 hours.

In Victoria, compared with the human toll, the economic loss pales into insignificance, but it is expected to exceed $500 million, and the cost to the wider economy could be up to $2 billion when damage to agriculture and public infrastructure are taken into account.

The final Garnaut Review report says that while some areas of Australia are expected to suffer worsening drought, others will have increased rainfall. These changes in rainfall can lead to much larger changes in streamflows, which has major implications for water supplies in Australian cities and towns:

• Perth has experienced the largest fall in streamflows of all Australian cities, with annual flows falling to 75% below the long-term average in recent years
• While in Melbourne, the stream flows are 35% down on the long-term average.

Climate change is not just about warmer weather, it is about wilder weather. Climate change costs, and climate change kills.

Of course taking action on climate change has its costs.  Our polluting industries have been very effective in reminding us of that. 

But buying a home costs; buying a car costs; going to school, TAFE or Uni costs;  building schools, bridges and hospitals cost. These costs are investments if they are linked to future benefits. 

So as our Government and others looks to boost investment through stimulus packages it is vital we are investing in both our climate and economic security.  For Australia this means investing in modernising, or cleaning up our economy which is amongst the most polluting and inefficient economies of the developed world.  

This week, UN chief Ban Ki-moon and Al Gore implored Governments not to remain rusted on to inefficient, polluting practices of the past.

[The spending] must help catapult the world economy into the 21st century, not perpetuate the dying industries and bad habits of yesteryear. Continuing to pour trillions of dollars into carbon-based infrastructure and fossil-fuel subsidies would be like investing in subprime real estate all over again.

It is time our political leaders wake up to the real and devastating impacts and costs of climate change but also woke to the huge opportunities.  We should not invest in building a low-carbon economy despite the state of the global economy, but because of it.  As Ban Ki-moon and Al Gore also point out…

[A low-carbon economy] is not an option but a necessity for recharging their economies and creating jobs. Globally, with 2.3m people employed in the renewable energy sector, there are already more jobs there than directly in the oil and gas industries. In the US, there are now more jobs in the wind industry than in the entire coal industry

Australia, with its abundant renewable energy assets, has huge potential for jobs growth in it’s clean technology sectors.

This is about our securing our economy and securing our environment.

As well as strengthening the carbon pollution reduction targets to at least 25% reductions from 2000 levels, it is important our political leaders ensure their policies are geared towards investment in a cleaner, more modern economy, better able to sustain jobs growth as we and the world undertake a low carbon recovery.

As the fires in Victoria have proven, yet again, in times of great challenge our common humanity shines through - communities, government, and businesses, stand shoulder to shoulder.

Australians recognise the imperative of strong action on climate change but are being let down by poor solutions, poor political compromises and poor arguments from some old style polluters determined to selfishly wrap themselves in cotton wool from the changes they knew were coming.

Given the right leadership and policy, Australians will do what they do best in a crisis – work together, tackle the problem head on, innovate and prosper...

This the extract of a speech delivered by John Connor to the Future Leaders event in Melbourne on 19^th February 2009