Less than 1° of warming

With minimal warming, south western Australia's global biodiversity hotspot will face the risk of extinction to some of its vulnerable species, and major habitat reductions.   Additionally, heatwave deaths will increase in Perth.

1-2°C of warming

Extinctions in the biodiversity hotspot will become very likely, and there will be a significant loss of coral reefs.

2-3°C of warming

Tropical cyclone rainfall will increase 20-30%, and wind speed will increase 5-10%. Annual heatwave deaths will increase in Perth from 290 (today) to 1,254-1,548. Moderate impacts will occur to water supply infrastructure and buildings in coastal settlements. Widespread coral reef loss and species extinctions will be very likely. Run-off into rivers will be reduced. 

Source: Climate Impacts and Emissions Targets

           Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report: Implications for Australia

Less than 1° of warming

Annual heatwave deaths in Adelaide will increase from 200(today) to 342-371.

1-2°C of warming

Murray Darling River flows will fall by 10-25%. 

2-3°C of warming

The average number of very high/extreme fire weather conditions in South Australia will increase, and extreme fire days will double to triple. Annual heatwave deaths will increase to 482-664 in Adelaide. Water resources are likely to be further stressed, for example in the Gulf of St Vincent. Moderate impacts will occur to water supply infrastructure and buildings in coastal settlements.

Greater than 3°C of warming

The flow in the Murray Darling Basin will fall 16-48%.  Water supply infrastructure will be severely impacted, and there will be high impacts on buildings in coastal settlements.  

Source: Climate Impacts and Emissions Targets

           Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report: Implications for Australia

There is an emerging consensus among prominent scientists that anything above a 2^oC increase in global temperatures above pre-industrial levels will be dangerous and irreversible with potentially catastrophic global impacts (Preston, Jones, 2006; Bali Climate Declaration by Scientists, 2007).

Even a 2°C increase in temperature would severely impact Australia, its neighbours, and key trading partners in the region. 

How will climate change affect your state?  Based on the 2007 IPCC report, The Climate Institute has compiled the effects that climate change will have on the regions of Australia: 

NSW and ACT

Victoria

Queensland

South Australia

Western Australia

The Climate Institute has put together several briefing papers about the various impacts climate change will have on Australia:

• Australia's 2020 Carbon Pollution Reduction Potential Briefing Paper
• Climate Impact & Emissions Target Briefing Document
• IPCC: Implications for Australia
• Climate Change impacts on Bushfires
• Acifidication

Less than 1° of warming

The Great Barrier Reef will be impacted heavily by climate change, starting with increases in temperature of only 1°, at which point there will be local to widespread coral bleaching over most reefs. The core habitats of species in Australia's internationally significant environments of North Queensland will experience major reductions.  Heatwave deaths are projected to increase in Brisbane. 

1-2°C of warming

81% of the Great Barrier Reef will be bleached, and there will be significant loss of coral reefs.  In Cairns, the area flooded by extreme storm surges will double. Significant species extinction will occur in Australia's internationally significant environments of North Queensland will experience major reductions. The number of extreme fire days will double. Water supply infrastructure and buildings in coastal settlements will be moderately impacted. 

2-3°C of warming

97% of the Great Barrier Reef will be bleached. Impacts on reef-based tourism in Queensland will be high. Warming at this level will have a major effect on annual heatwave deaths in Brisbane, increasing from 134 (today) to 776-1,368. Dengue fever will spread south to Brisbane. Species extinction will be widespread.The number of extreme fire days will double. Water supply infrastructure and buildings in coastal settlements will be moderately impacted. 

Greater than 3°C of warming

Coral species will undergo catastrophic death annually. The Great Barrier Reef will be destroyed. Thousands of additional temperature-related deaths will occur in Queensland each year. Water supply infrastructure and buildings in coastal settlements will be extremely iimpacted. 

Source: Climate Impacts and Emissions Targets

           Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report: Implications for Australia