South Australian marginal seat polling

Sunday, 26 August 2007 16:22

The following research memo highlights key findings in the South Australian seats of Kingston, Makin and Wakefield, drawing comparisons with figures in marginal seats in New South Wales and Queensland where appropriate. The overall sample size is 1,680 with over 500 interviews in each State.

EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AT NEXT ELECTION

Almost two thirds (62%) of voters in the key South Australian seats of Kingston, Makin and Wakefield say climate change will affect their vote at the next Federal election, around one-third (35%) feel it will have no effect and virtually no-one (3%) will vote to oppose it.
Importantly it will also influence the vote of 59% of Swing voters, with 41% claiming no effect and less than 1% voting to oppose it.
South Australian Green voters provide the strongest support 76%, but Coalition provide the weakest (57%).

BETTER PARTY FOR MANAGING CLIMATE CHANGE

Labor is ahead as the better party for managing climate change (41% vs. 20%), but a high proportion believing both parties are the same (39%).
Swinging voters in the South Australian marginals are very likely to believe both parties are the same (67%) and those with an opinion marginally favour Labor (18% vs. 15%).
Labor rates better on climate change among its own supporters (73%) than the Coalition does among its own voters (64%).

EFFECT OF ENVIRONMENT AT PREVIOUS ELECTION

Just under half of voters in the South Australian marginals (49%) claim that environmental issues affected their vote at previous elections and this is still a strong factor among Swinging voters (41%).
Very few people voted to oppose environmental issues (2%) and support was strongest among safe Labor voters (51%) but weakest among safe Coalition voters (42%).

SUPPORT FOR ENVIRONMENT AT PREVIOUS ELECTIONS AND FOR CLIMATE CHANGE NOW

Climate change is likely to be a more important issue at the forthcoming election than environmental issues have been at previous elections.
Overall voters, 49% of voters in these key South Australian seats previously voted to support environmental issues, while 62% will vote to support climate change at the next Federal election.
This difference remains strong among Swinging voters, with 41% having previously voted to support environmental issues and 59% planning to vote to support climate change.
There is also a strong rise among Coalition voters (42% to 57%) and among men (43% to 59%).

SPEED OF ACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE

Just under half of respondents in these key South Australian seats (52%) believe Australia should move quickly on climate change even if it has a short term impact on the economy while only 31% believe Australia should move slowly on climate change to avoid short term damage to the economy.
More than half (56%) also believe we should move quickly, 22% favouring slow progress and 22% unsure.
Coalition voters were clearly the most likely to believe Australia should move slowly (48%), with Labor supporters believing Australia should move quickly (60%) and the Greens also believing in rapid action (68%).

CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES - UNDERSTANDING OF

Most voters feel they understand what it means for Australia to set greenhouse pollution reduction targets within the next five years (86%) and for "all new electricity to come from clean energy" (84%).
These were fairly consistent among the Labor and Coalition voters.
Understanding was lower among Swinging voters.

CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES - VOTER BELIEFS

There is consistent support for greenhouse pollution reduction targets (88%) and all new energy to come from clean energy (82%).
Support is strongest for these policies among Labor voters (targets - 91% and clean energy - 87%).
Critically it is still strong among Coalition supporters (93% & 80%) and fairly strong among Swinging voters (75% & 77%).

CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES - INFLUENCE ON VOTE

All three climate change policies are likely to influence the votes of both Swinging South Australian voters and all voters in the sample of South Australian marginal seats. These are:

Setting targets to reduce greenhouse pollution within the next five years, which will influence 64% of all voters and 60% of Swinging voters
Ensuring all new electricity comes from clean energy, which will influence 63% of all voters and 59% of Swinging voters.
Importantly, there is still a large block of people who are not opposed to these policies, but rather have no opinion about them. Among Swinging voters, 34% are undecided about clean energy and 35% are unsure about pollution reduction targets.
Even around half of Coalition South Australian voters will be influenced by targets (59%) and new clean energy (55%).

	TOTAL	NSW (Bennelong, Parramatta, Lindsay)	QLD (Bonner, Bowman, Petrie)	SA (Hindmarsh, Kingston, Makin)
Sample Size*	1,680	562	543	575
BETTER PARTY FOR CLIMATE CHANGE
ALP	42	39	47	41
Both the Same	38	39	36	39
Coalition	20	22	17	20
EFFECT OF ENVIRONMENT AT PREVIOUS ELECTIONS
Supported environmental issues	48	48	47	49
No effect	49	48	50	49
Opposed environmental issues	3	4	3	2
EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AT NEXT ELECTION
Will vote to support climate change	62	61	62	62
No effect	35	35	35	35
Will vote to oppose climate change	3	4	3	3
SPEED TO DEAL WITH CLIMATE CHANGE
Move slowly to avoid short term damage to economy	33	36	32	31
Move quickly even if it leads to short term damage to the economy	50	48	49	52
Don't know	17	16	18	17
GREENHOUSE POLLUTION REDUCTION TARGETS
I understand what it means for Australia to set targets	85	84	85	86
I believe Australia should set targets	86	84	86	88
I would be more likely to vote for a party that set targets	64	61	66	64
CLEAN ENERGY GENERATION
I understand what it means for all new electricity generation to come from clean energy	85	85	84	84
I believe all new electricity generation to come from clean energy	79	77	77	82
I would be more likely to vote for a party that ensures all new electricity generation to come from clean energy	62	61	62	63

*Indicative margin of error is 2.4 percentage points across the whole sample and 4.1 percentage points in each State (at the 95% confidence interval).

< Prev		Next >

South Australian marginal seat polling

On Twitter

Join Our Newsletter

Resources