The Australian Coal Association (ACA) has claimed that the Federal Government's proposed Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) would cost the industry money and jobs. In reality, all the modelling conducted to date-- including that commisioned by the coal industry-- shows growth in income and jobs in the coal sector. This growth may not be as strong as a business as usual scenario, but will still be significant. In fact, even under Treasury's strongest target scenario, output in the coal sector is expected to increase 37% by 2020.

 These dire coal industry forecasts have also been contradicted by independent energy consultants Wood MacKenzie, which estimated that 13 new coalmines would be opened and $23 billiion invested in the sector between now and 2015, with production rising to a record 450 million tonnes per year.

A study by the CSIRO found that, even with strong action on climate change, an addition 24,000 jobs would be created in the mining and energy commodities sector between 2005 and 2025, representing an increase of 30%.

The main mining union, the CFMEU, described the coal industry's publicity campaign as 'blatantly dishonest'.

"This scare mongering is purely a cynical bid by mining giants to squeeze more in compensation out of Australian taxpayers," said CFMEU mining and energy division national president, Tony Maher.

Even Mitch Hooke, CEO of the Minerals Council and vigorous campaigner against climate change policy, had to admit before a Senate Inquiry hearing, "We are not talking about scorched earth here, we know we will continue to grow.¹

 In actual fact, the introduction of the CPRS will result in slower rates of growth in some emissions-intensive sectors, but as shown in the graph below, even under the most ambitious emission cuts scenario modelled by Federal Treasury, all but two industries continue to expand under the CPRS.

 Change in Sectoral Output under the Garnaut 25% Scenario 2008-2050²

 _{1Proof Committee Hansard, 29 May 2009, p. 50-51}

_{2 Treasury (2008), Australia's Low-Pollution Future: The Economics of Climate Change}